Just two months ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager admonished him for not reading a through-ball. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained if his displays were a symptom or the source of Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. As the in-form star drilled in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their opening six games, find themselves only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?
This is a rather hard question to answer. History, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side had an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club who have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans look strangely fragile – but currently the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with the opposition and wait for Rogers to bail them out with some clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more versus United.
The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
- The winger could transform into the player he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought the young forward now would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. When the hero faced the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
